Bayesian parameter estimation of convective heat transfer coefficients of a roof-mounted radiant barrier system

This paper deals with the application of Bayesian methods to the estimation of two convective heat transfer coefficients of a roof-mounted radiant barrier system (RBS). As part of an empirical validation of the thermal model of the roofing complex, a parametric sensitivity analysis highlighted the importance of convective coefficients in the thermal behavior of a roofing complex. A parameter estimation method is then used in order to find the values of the coefficients that lead to an improvement of the thermal model. However, instead of using a classical parameter estimation method, we used a Bayesian inference approach to parameter estimation. The aim of the paper is to introduce the basic concepts of this powerful method in this simple two-parameter case. We show that Bayesian methods introduce an explicit treatment of uncertainty in modelling and a corresponding measure of reliability for the conclusions reached.